Doping the Olympics

I’m going to make a wild prediction. In 16 years, in the 2024 Olympics (and it might happen earlier), all manner of performance-enhancing drugs are going to be allowed in Olympic competition. And in fact, I think it’s the right move. Actually, it’s the only move that makes sense. Either that, or the Olympics will collapse under the weight of innuendo and suspicion.

Check out the article in Wired called “Cheats of Strength: 10 Next-Gen Olympic Doping Methods.” It’s frightening how many new methods are being developed to give athletes an artificial edge. No doubt many of these will be virtually undetectable.

And this is a curve that will accelerate faster than Usain Bolt. Nanotechnology will make available remarkably effective new processes such as cell replacement, gene reprogramming, red blood cell enhancements, etc. Trying to police these technologies is like cops playing catch-up to radar detectors—the best cheaters will always win, creating a perpetually imbalanced playing field. Further, it will present rather extraordinary ethical dilemmas. For instance, if it turns out that a certain myostatin can dramatically increase lean muscle mass, could an aspiring country breed athletes with high-myostatin insemination?

The IOC will have no choice but to throw in the towel and let the best dope win. In many cases, there will be no ill effects to the enhancements (in fact, quite the opposite, as research shifts from masking detection to reducing risks). Other means will present options: If someone wants to trade 10 years of their life for a shot at the gold, that’s a personal decision. Minors will probably be outlawed from competition, making the investment profile of enhancement a little less attractive. And record books will be rewritten, but as the Beijing Games have made clear, technology is doing that already.

This permissiveness will flow as well to professional sports across the world. So we will all quit worrying about testing and cheating and sit back and watch astounding acts of physical prowess, something between the traditional games of our youth and CGI.

Further, I’m guessing that somewhere around that time we’ll be able to enjoy absolutely life-like digital recreations of classic games from the Pre-Enhanced Era (PEE) on the big screen at home. Pick your teams, change the strategy, draft another player, etc. Then let them play it out. Your players will be programmed to perform exactly like Michael Jordan, Larry Bird et al. This will be where the gambling money will flow, because it will be better controlled and regulated. Fantasy Football on steroids. As opposed to the Olympics on steroids. You heard it here first.