A Very Dark Horse

If nominated, I will not run.
If elected, I will not serve.

The Internet brings such curious power to the people.

In a Wiki

Yesterday morning I woke up and discovered I was a Wikipedia entry. (That line feels vaguely reminiscent of the opening of Kafka’s Metamorphosis, which goes something like this: “As Gregor Samsa awoke one morning from uneasy dreams he found himself transformed in his bed into a gigantic insect.” And perhaps my initial reaction was not much different from Gregor’s.)

I have no idea how it got there—it looks like some web indexing. (I swear it wasn’t me!). But it picked up some general biographical data that was mostly accurate, some business background and even family info. I did fix the birth date, which was off by a year.

Once I recovered from the surprise, I began to diagnose this phenomenon. Have I become more important? Well, no. In fact, since leaving ClearPlay I’ve become less relevant in the world of business (CEO’s trump consultants any day). What then? And it came to me. Web 2.0 is not-so-gradually making us all public figures. Our privacy is ebbing away. The time is not far distant when virtually every public action that you take will be traceable, creating a vast library of online biographies free and open to the viewing public.

The Libertarian in me says take it down. But the devil known as Vanity says leave it up. In this case, I’ll neither stand on principle nor bend to temptation. But I will leave it up. With my new business, I could use the publicity.

Parties Having Parties

Now that the Olympics are over and we have two weeks before real sports (i.e. football) starts the leaders of our country determined that citizens were in great danger of not having anything exciting to watch on television. Not being talented enough to create a good mini-series, and not interesting enough for Reality TV, they decided to hold political conventions. Yes, sadly, this is the best they could come up with.

You might ask why you should be glued to your TV set to watch the conventions. The answer is, you shouldn’t, because nothing important ever happens at conventions. No decisions are made. Everything is scripted, from alliteration to applause, from nuance to neckties. Neither candidate is going to say anything new. There are no policy shifts forthcoming. It is all a fait accompli. Yet on we watch, expecting that, what, someone might catch Barrack Obama making out with Hillary behind the curtain?

So why are Republicans and Democrats alike wasting countless millions just to throw a party? Well, first of all, it’s a cash machine. Taxpayers pony up the first $16.4 million to each party (doesn’t that stick in your craw a bit?). Further, each party sells virtually unregulated sponsorships to big business to the tune of over $100 million total. Yep, this is a big money venture—a fundraiser.

And of course, the second reason is the media, with over 15,000 members of the press covering each convention, taking careful notes, writing meaningless political drivel and passing on the most banal of broadcast commentary. Fortunately, even though these titans of journalism are mostly bloated and hungover from the free food and drink, reporting on the convention is a fairly easy process. (Hints: Obama is for change and McCain will indirectly suggest that Democrats are fighting a jihad led by a closet Muslim terrorist.) Besides the party hacks, the entire events are dominated by corporate sponsor suck-ups and disinterested journalists. As some clever pundit said: “The parasites have become the host.”

Yes, it’s a sad and broken system. It’s a tragedy is that one of these two parties gets to have a president. But even worse, there’s nothing else good on TV.

Lake Blanche

Took a hike this afternoon to Lake Blanche, one of the most beautiful trails in the area. It's been several years since I've been up there, and I was once again reminded of why I love it so much. The first mile runs along a burbling creek. Then the climb gets steeper and rockier, with beautiful stands of large quaking aspens amidst rocky outgrowths and occasional large piles of oven-sized rocks where the mountain has given way. The mountain ash were full of orange berries, while raspberry bushes with leaves as big as my hand offered only a few berries left to eat.

Reaching the top offers a delightful reward, where several crystal clear mountain lakes are nestled under the watchful gaze of Sundial Peak. I made good time heading up--reaching the lakes in about an hour with a combination of running and fast-walking the three miles (and 3000 foot elevation gain). I rewarded myself with the most cold and refreshing swim I've had in years.

I'm continually reminded how stunning the Wasatch canyons are and what a blessing it is to have them in my own backyard.

Doping the Olympics

I’m going to make a wild prediction. In 16 years, in the 2024 Olympics (and it might happen earlier), all manner of performance-enhancing drugs are going to be allowed in Olympic competition. And in fact, I think it’s the right move. Actually, it’s the only move that makes sense. Either that, or the Olympics will collapse under the weight of innuendo and suspicion.

Check out the article in Wired called “Cheats of Strength: 10 Next-Gen Olympic Doping Methods.” It’s frightening how many new methods are being developed to give athletes an artificial edge. No doubt many of these will be virtually undetectable.

And this is a curve that will accelerate faster than Usain Bolt. Nanotechnology will make available remarkably effective new processes such as cell replacement, gene reprogramming, red blood cell enhancements, etc. Trying to police these technologies is like cops playing catch-up to radar detectors—the best cheaters will always win, creating a perpetually imbalanced playing field. Further, it will present rather extraordinary ethical dilemmas. For instance, if it turns out that a certain myostatin can dramatically increase lean muscle mass, could an aspiring country breed athletes with high-myostatin insemination?

The IOC will have no choice but to throw in the towel and let the best dope win. In many cases, there will be no ill effects to the enhancements (in fact, quite the opposite, as research shifts from masking detection to reducing risks). Other means will present options: If someone wants to trade 10 years of their life for a shot at the gold, that’s a personal decision. Minors will probably be outlawed from competition, making the investment profile of enhancement a little less attractive. And record books will be rewritten, but as the Beijing Games have made clear, technology is doing that already.

This permissiveness will flow as well to professional sports across the world. So we will all quit worrying about testing and cheating and sit back and watch astounding acts of physical prowess, something between the traditional games of our youth and CGI.

Further, I’m guessing that somewhere around that time we’ll be able to enjoy absolutely life-like digital recreations of classic games from the Pre-Enhanced Era (PEE) on the big screen at home. Pick your teams, change the strategy, draft another player, etc. Then let them play it out. Your players will be programmed to perform exactly like Michael Jordan, Larry Bird et al. This will be where the gambling money will flow, because it will be better controlled and regulated. Fantasy Football on steroids. As opposed to the Olympics on steroids. You heard it here first.

Mongol

Mongol was released in a few film festivals a year ago, and even got an Academy Award nom last year (Best Foreign Film), but just recently found its way to my local arthouse theatre.

The movie tells the story of a young Genghis Khan, the great 12-century Mongolian warlord. Admittedly, this is history with an asterisk. Most of the story is based on The Secret History of the Mongols, the oldest Mongolian literature extant, written as a tribute to Ghengis Khan after his death, and probably more heroic mythic poetry than historical fact. Despite these blurry lines, it is as good a foundation as any to tell the beginnings of the greatest conqueror in the world's history and one of its most intriguing leaders. And unlike many biopics, it also makes for a great story.

Mongol follows the young Temudjin (his given name) from birth through an extraordinarily challenging childhood, despite his favorable heritage (his father was a minor tribal chief). We see a surprisingly mature 10-year-old choose his wife (or, vice-versa really), witness his father's murder, and survive all manner of trials and tribulations with quiet determination and fortitude.

Growing into manhood, Temudjin uses his natural leadership talent and skill in combat to reap his revenge and begin assembling the army that would eventually conquer most of Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

This is an engaging film, beautifully crafted by veteran Russian director Sergei Bodrov. Shot on location in China, there is a rich, verdant oppressiveness to the settings, befitting the rugged outdoor life of the nomadic tribes. Spoken in Mongol with subtitles (and using Mongolian and Chinese actors), the films feels strangely authentic. The battles are orchestrated with grandeur and realism (and plenty of gore), reminiscent of Braveheart, giving the production a big-budget feel.

Rumor has it that this is the first of a trilogy Bodrov is planning on the life of Genghis Khan. That would be an ambitious undertaking and an extraordinary product. In any event, Mongol certainly is a painless way to take your history. Highly recommended.

My Personal Best

John Wooden was the greatest athletic coach this country has ever seen. His UCLA basketball teams won 11 NCAA national championships. At one point, they had an 88-game winning streak. (As an aside, I remember as a kid in 1974 watching the game where the streak was broken. John Shumate and a young Adrian Dantley led Notre Dame to the historic victory.)

So looking for a little inspiration, I just read My Personal Best: Life Lessons from an All-American Journey, a short autobiography sprinkled with anecdotes about the principles he has learned. The man's bedrock character oozes from the pages. He's all about fundamentals, in basketball and life. And the principle he stresses most is one I have held deeply through all my years of coaching kids--winning or losing is not that important, but doing your best is everything.

He includes a little poem which is as profound as any I have read:

There is a choice you have to make
In everything you do.
So keep in mind that in the end
The choice you make, makes you.

Our character is a simple function of all the many choices we make (with the more recent ones counting for more, I think). And we make new ones all day every day. These choices define us.

I've read other books by and about John Wooden (They Call Me Coach is another classic). They are all quite a bit alike. And they are all great.

Enquring Minds Finally Know

I'm going to resist the temptation to pile on recent Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards, who after months of vehement denial finally admitted to carrying on an affair in 2006 with a woman his campaign hired to film campaign videos. That wouldn't be fair. If all adulterers were sent off there would be a great vacuum of power in Washington, with not enough left to mount a filibuster. Corporate boards would adjourn without mustering a quorum. And Hollywood would be reduced to a ghost town. So I'll leave Mr. Edwards to the unfortunate consequences of getting caught, which Bill Clinton has ably demonstrated diminish over time given sufficient ego and charm.

But I will share a hearty laugh about the esteemed icon of investigative journalism that first broke the story--none other than The National Enquirer. Hmmm. Maybe I need to rethink the possibility that Elvis is cleaning carpets in South Dakota, or that there really is a Rottweiler that whistles Edelweiss.

July Quotes

"What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence, a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention."
--Herbert Simon, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics

"Work as though you would live forever, and live as though you would die today."
--Og Mandino

"As if you could kill time without injuring eternity."
--Henry David Thoreau, Walden

"He who asks questions is a fool for five minutes. He who does not ask questions is a fool forever."
--Chinese Proverb

"I speak without exaggeration when I say that I have constructed three thousand different theories in connection with the electric light, yet only in two cases did my experiments prove the truth of my theory."
--Thomas Edison

"The more you know, the more you care."
--Sam Walton

"In twenty percent of the world's most primitive languages, the word for belief is the same as the word for do. It is only when people get more sophisticated that they begin to separate the meaning of one word for the other."
--From "Talent is Never Enough," by John C. Maxwell

"And will you succeed? Yes indeed, yes indeed! Ninety-eight and three-quarters percent guaranteed."
--Dr. Seuss

"To know anything well involves a profound sensation of ignorance."
--John Ruskin

"There is a choice you have to make
In everything you do,
So keep in mind that in the end
The choice you make makes you.
--John Wooden, My Personal Best


"She's got gaps. I got gaps. Together, we fill the gaps."
--Rocky Balboa, talking about Adrian.

Fooled by Randomness

Nissam Taleb is a former Wall Street trader with a cynical take on success in his industry. In fact, he believes that much of the success and failure in the market (and by extension, life in general) can be explained by randomness. To prove his point, his book Fooled by Randomness introduces an eclectic array of logical and philosophical support, from Hume’s argument against induction to the Turing Test to Popper’s theory on theories (which is that no theories can be proved true—there are only theories that have been proven false and theories which have yet to be proven false).

Despite Taleb’s rather arrogant and sometimes abrasive tone, Fooled by Randomness is an entertaining read. It struck me as a treatise on logic for our society, continually exposing the irrationality of many of our assumptions on life. And while he never leaves the financial world for too long, the sting of his arguments can be felt in other fields as well.

The whole randomness argument is keenly interesting and broadly relevant, although often counter-intuitive. Random variations account for quite a bit of financial success in our world, yet our society lauds those that have made money and assumes they possess some secret alchemy. On Wall Street, if the successful keep trading they are often eventually exposed, sometimes very ignominiously. (In the balance of the business world, the fortunately wealthy often move on to become venture capitalists or angel investors, all the better to maintain the illusion of their business prowess.)

It’s when he is illustrating his points that Taleb is most convincing. For example, I can translate the principle of random success into a compelling scam. Suppose I send 5000 people a letter with a bold prediction that a certain volatile stock will increase. And then I send a different 5000 people the opposite prediction. I turn out to be right with half of them. So I do it again, with a different volatile stock, now split 2500/2500. And this can continue, with a small investment in stamps and envelopes, until a few hundred people view my remarkable track record and are convinced that I’m a stock-picking genius. Clever scam indeed, but the corollary truth that makes it possible is that even if monkeys are making trades, a certain percentage of them will be wildly successful, earning millions in commissions and guest spots on MSNBC. Think about that the next time your investment banker pal pulls up in his Ferrari.

There’s a lot more. Taleb delightfully points out how we misuse and are misled by statistics, how our beliefs are warped by biases (the survivorship bias, availability bias, etc.), and how our decisions and conclusions, even from intelligent and educated people, can often be driven by irrational heuristics. (Example: People think it is more likely that a major earthquake will occur in California than that one will occur in the United States.)

And with every example I found myself laughing at how painfully ridiculous we are in our feeble thinking. Shakespeare said it best, in A Midsummer Night's Dream: “What fools these mortals be!”